What is the weighted pipeline?

The weighted pipeline is the predictable-revenue tool from Chapter 5 of Scale at Speed.

Track the opportunity pipeline by stage:

• Leads — unqualified, just identified.
• Sales-qualified leads (SQLs) — qualified that there is a real need and budget.
• Pitches — actively in pitch.
• Quotes — quote/proposal issued.
• Decisions awaited — proposal made, customer deliberating.

Assign each stage a probability weight based on historical conversion (e.g. SQL 10%, pitch 30%, quote 60%, decision awaited 80%). Sum the weighted opportunity values across the pipeline; that sum is your forecast revenue.

The secondary process

A weighted pipeline must include a continuous evaluation of the weights themselves. If "decision awaited" opportunities convert at 50% rather than the modelled 80%, the weights are wrong. Re-calibrate quarterly.

"An honest weighted pipeline is what makes hiring, investment and stretch goals safe; an inflated pipeline kills companies." — paraphrased from Chapter 5.

The weighted pipeline itself is a Process task — it requires a CRM, defined stage rules, and a reporting cadence. It is also a Sales & Marketing tool — see Chapter 5.